KSAN Weather Blog: When will it feel like fall in the Concho Valley?

KSAN Weather

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Well here we are in the middle of September, however it has not felt like it yet. So, the big question here is when will it feel more like fall in the Concho Valley?

Meteorologist Aaron Ayers did some digging into the climate data at Mathis Field, and here is what he found:

NOWData chart for September-December.
NOAA NOWData chart showing temperatures from September to November.

The chart above shows several things, and it can be a little overwhelming when you first glance at it. However, we will just focus on the tan section and the blue bars for this topic.

The chart shows that our normal daytime high temperatures (top of tan section) in September are around 90°.

According San Angelo climatology, mid October is when day time highs typically max out at or near 80°. This is also when overnight temperatures will start dropping below the 60° mark.

However, this may not be what we expect this year.

Remember the blue bars from the chart above? Those are the observed daily temperature ranges for September 2019 in San Angelo, and they have been above average for what is expected for the month of September.

Temperatures in San Angelo in September normally consists of a average high of 86° and a average low of 63°.

However, as of September 17, 2019, the average high temperature for September in San Angelo at Mathis Field has been 97°. The average low has been 69°.

Temperatures are almost 6-10 degrees warmer than normal.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, we are going to continue to see above average temperatures heading into the start of fall.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook.

The 6-10 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, gives us an idea of how temperatures might trend over the next week.

Well above average temperatures are still expected for much of the U.S as we head into the first week of fall.

While historical data points us to a typical cooler period by mid to late October, each year is uniquely different.

Also, we typically see our first “strong” cold front in September in the Concho Valley.

Recent trends of above average temperatures could be a sign that fall-like temperatures could be delayed later in October instead of the middle of the month opposed to what is expected for the Concho Valley.

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