Weather Pattern changing; Rain chances returning to the Concho Valley – (10/5)

KSAN Weather Blog

The last 10 days have featured days that have mainly been quiet and hot with highs getting above normal in the Concho Valley. All that is about to change thanks to a pattern shift that will bring ample rain chances back to the Concho Valley.


Fall is much like spring where we see “fights” between hot air and cool air. One of those fights will happen this week as an upper level trough and an upper level ridge get stuck leaving us in between. That will allow numerous disturbances to swing over head leading to a muliti-day rain threat before the upper level low pulls off late next week. 


Rain chances will increase through the weekend peaking Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

For those of you thinking your weekend has been ruined once again – don’t freak out yet – most of Saturday will actually turn out nice…albeit warm and humid with highs in the 80s. However, models indicate the first of these “disturbances” could swing over late Saturday night. At the same time…a cold front will stall out somewhere near I-20…potentially even further south towards Sterling City. Along and north of that cold front there will be plenty of lift to produce heavy rain. Watch how it plays out on Futurecast. 


Models differ on how much rain will fall with this system..with the GFS model taking the wetter route predicting up to 4 inches in parts of our area. While the European model is predicting more of a 1.5 inch total with some areas picking up 3 inches. My gut feeling is that we’ll see more of a widespread 1-2inch situation over our area. Some areas northwest of a line from Ozona to San Angelo to Ballinger could pick up 4-6 inches in isolated areas depending on where the front stalls on Saturday. 


It should also be noted…there is the potential for one or two severe storms on Saturday and Sunday south of the front…the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas northwest of Ozona to San Angelo to Bronte under a Level 1 Marginal risk for severe weather. The main threats will be some isolated pocket change hail and some gusty winds, though the bigger concern will be flooding and frequent lightning. 


There will be multiple chances for storms over the next 3-4 days. IT WILL NOT RAIN THE WHOLE TIME but rounds of heavy rain will be possible. Saturday plans should not be cancelled, but should be monitored if they go into the late evening. Sunday plans could get wet and Monday and Tuesday will likely be wet. The best way to keep yourself aware of what’s going on is following the KSAN Storm Team on Social media and checking the Concho Valley Homepage and Concho Valley Homepage app – where you can track the storms using interactive radar. We’ll keep you ahead of the storm.

– Chief Meteorologist Josh Johns

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