KSAN Weather Blog

Nice start to work week, but keep eyes on tropics where rain chances may loom (9/11)

Potential for tropical storm to develop in Gulf late this week

San Angelo, Tx - After a week which saw heavy rain in the Concho Valley, a nice work week is ahead before something tropical brings us rain chances for the weekend. 


Plenty of rain fell over the Concho Valley last week, with flooding occurring in San Angelo and Menard. The heaviest rain fell over an area known as the "Middle Valley" between Eldorado, Sonora, and Fort McKavett which lies in the San Saba River Watershed. Heavy rains in this area led to the rising of the San Saba river in Menard, which rose to 13.7 feet - the highest level seen since 2000! That November, the river rose to 18 feet - which is considered minor flooding. Monday, the river was reported to have fallen back to 5 feet. A few evacuations were ordered Saturday evening along the San Saba River as it crested. Those evacuations have since been lifted. 


We are finally on the back side of the system that brought us rain this past week, which means that drier air is filtering in - albeit temporarily. That's going to lead to some downright comfortable days with highs in the 80s and Mainly Sunny skies...at least until we get towards the end of the week.


The tropics are heating up once again with 3 named storms (One of which...Florence...will impact the east coast. ) and an area that bears watching near the Yucatan Peninsula. 


Florence is a major Category 4 Hurricane and is forecast to hit the Carolina Coast at some point near Thursday. The current forecast is for Florence to remain a Category 4 and Mandatory evacuations of North and South Carolina have been ordered. Another pressing threat with Florence is for the potential of the storm stalling out near landfall meaning very heavy rain will fall in these areas. We'll keep you posted. 


For brevity's sake - we will focus on Florence and the storm in the Gulf. Helene is expected to stay out to sea and Isaac may move into the Caribbean - so we still have time to look at them later. 

A tropical wave in the Gulf saw an uptick in storm activity on Monday signaling strengthening. As of 12am Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center is giving this storm a 30% Chance of forming into something over the next 2 days and a 60% chance of forming into a Tropical Storm over the next 5 days.

The culprit - Wind Shear. Florence is in an area of lighter wind shear, which Hurricanes like...so Florence will have no problem maintaining its strength as it has found a pocket of light shear. Meanwhile the system in the Gulf will struggle, so expectations are for it to remain below Hurricane strength. Regardless - the system will bring plenty of rain and moisture to the Texas Coast, and that moisture is expected to move into the Concho Valley this weekend bringing rain chances.  

While I don't expect a washout like last week, I do expect a few days of splash and dash shower chances. Much like last weekend (not this weekend).


Tuesday will start off brisk with lows that could bottom out in the upper 50s in outlying areas. I'm expecting a low of 60° in San Angelo. Skies will start out cloudy but slowly clear throughout the day with highs cooler than they are supposed to be this time of year. It will be an all around beautiful day in the afternoon with comfortable dew points. Get out and enjoy it! 

As always, you can get the latest forecast and live interactive radar on the Concho Valley Homepageand on KSAN News at 5, 6, and 10.  

-Chief Meteorologist Josh Johns

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