Fall drought forecast: NOAA sees the same fall pattern ‘just about everywhere’

Weather

The Climate Prediction Center’s drought outlook shows few sighs of relief. (NOAA).

(NEXSTAR) – Residents of the western United States are getting used to ending summer with smoke-filled skies and shrinking reservoirs, but new projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration offer little relief in early fall.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released new maps Thursday providing a temperature and precipitation outlook for the weeks and months ahead. Projections show a high likelihood of warmer and dry conditions than normal across most of the southwest, stretching north to the Canadian border.

Researchers from NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System say we may see a few signs of improvement along the Oregon and Washington coast, and surrounding Illinois and Wisconsin, but most of the nation’s hardest-hit drought zones won’t get relief.

“But the big picture: Drought is expected to persist through November just about everywhere,” tweeted the NIDIS team. The drought could even expand into the Central Plains region.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 98% of the West is in a drought. About 25% of the region is in the worst category: exceptional drought.

The outlook map above shows existing drought conditions locked in over roughly a third of the continental U.S. That means little to no improvement for more than a dozen states with current exceptional drought conditions.

Current federal Drought Monitor map (NOAA)

In recent weeks, NOAA forecasters have expressed increased confidence in the formation of a La Niña weather pattern for late fall into winter.

La Niña is the name given to a pattern of colder-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The result is a change in expected seasonal conditions, often drying out the southern states and providing a soaking along a northern jetstream.

(NOAA image)

Such a pattern could bring relief to the Pacific Northwest but likely wouldn’t help parched states along the southern border as fall turns to winter.

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Clear

San Angelo

74°F Clear Feels like 74°
Wind
5 mph ESE
Humidity
67%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Low 63F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
63°F Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Low 63F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind
7 mph S
Precip
15%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Last Quarter
Clear

Robert Lee

73°F Clear Feels like 73°
Wind
6 mph SE
Humidity
62%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Partly cloudy skies. Low 64F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
64°F Partly cloudy skies. Low 64F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind
7 mph S
Precip
6%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Last Quarter
Partly Cloudy

Eldorado

73°F Partly Cloudy Feels like 73°
Wind
4 mph SSE
Humidity
67%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Some clouds this evening will give way to mainly clear skies overnight. Low 63F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
63°F Some clouds this evening will give way to mainly clear skies overnight. Low 63F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind
6 mph S
Precip
10%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Last Quarter
Fair

Mertzon

72°F Fair Feels like 72°
Wind
8 mph SSE
Humidity
58%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Mostly clear. Low 64F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
64°F Mostly clear. Low 64F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind
8 mph SSW
Precip
9%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Last Quarter
Fair

Eden

70°F Fair Feels like 70°
Wind
7 mph SE
Humidity
79%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Some clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Low 64F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
64°F Some clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Low 64F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind
9 mph S
Precip
15%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Last Quarter

Water Conservation Status

Standard Conservation

San Angelo is in standard conservation, which restricts outside watering to twice every seven days at no more than 1 inch per week, no watering between noon and 6 pm. Runoff of more than 150 feet down any street, gutter, alley or ditch is prohibited.

Report watering violations by clicking on https://www.cosatx.us/departments-services/water-conservation/report-a-water-violation or calling 325-657-4409. Do your part; be water smart!


Skylive Cameras