Pacific moisture is approaching the Concho Valley and portions of West Texas this week. Our sunny days will turn cloudy for the rest of the work week with precipitation chances increasing starting Wednesday night.
A low pressure area is situated just along the Panhandle of Oklahoma and delivering some heavy rains to the central United States, just behind this system is a strong Pacific low which is currently moving ashore along the West Coast. Thanks to that anti-cyclonic flow it is pushing moisture from the Pacific eastward into New Mexico and Texas.
Rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder are already pushing into western portions of the Concho Valley.
Storms have the best chance to develop across the Big Country for the late afternoon and early evening hours with the Concho Valley seeing storms begin to fill in during the evening and overnight hours.
Models are having difficulty on the exact location these storms will begin to fire up. The NAM model is showing most of the heavy activity to stay north and move into the Big Country for the early evening hours. However, the HRRR model is showing the storms to intensify across western and northwestern parts of the Concho Valley during the early evening hours.
The severe threat remains minimal across the Concho Valley but a severe storm cannot be ruled out. These storms will be capable of producing hail, strong winds, and excessive lightning. There is some light atmospheric energy across central and western portions of the Concho Valley which will help to energize storms this evening. However, most of this activity will move north-northwest over the next few hours. This shift in energy will increase thunderstorm chances for our western counties and decrease the possibility for them in our eastern areas.
The best chance for rain remains primarily to the west in the Concho Valley. However, the Big Country has, at this time, the best chance for rain and strong thunderstorms for this event.
A marginal risk for severe weather remains for extreme northwest portions of Sterling and Coke county with the rest of the Concho Valley under a non-severe threat.
The powerful Pacific low, currently over California and Arizona, will continue to track eastward over the Wednesday night and Thursday dragging our next cold front with it. Precipitation chances will increase once again beginning Thursday night and continuing overnight into Friday. This cold front will help to usher in more fall-like temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend.