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KSAN Wednesday Afternoon Quickcast 8/7

We're tracking near record heat and potential showers and storms for this evening, tonight, and through the end of the work week...
Looking over the model data initially this afternoon, I like what I'm seeing in terms of rainfall chances for tonight. In fact, I'd say it's likely the viewing area will see some rain tonight. The million dollar question comes down to how widespread and how many people will end up seeing the rain. Unfortunately, that's looking more like a wait-and-see proposition as many areas could be missed. On the other hand, a widespread event can't be ruled out either. I'm not in love with the surface-based instability, but decent saturation aloft combined with a healthy impulse of upper level energy moving in late tonight suggests at least the chance for widespread yet scattered showers and storms. For now, I'm going with a 40% chance for showers and storms tonight.

In addition, there could be some spotty activity over the viewing area later this evening, but the chance is a bit lower at 20% and the western half of the viewing area will have the best chance for any shower and thunderstorm development.


In addition to the mention of a 40% chance for showers and storms from earlier, I just checked out the HRRR model data, which was the only model to really be on the money yesterday despite typically trending wetter than what usually happens. This data is the most bold in terms of producing widespread scattered showers and storms across the region prior to sunset today. While the upper level energy is displaced further to the west today which would make for less favorable rain chances than what we saw yesterday afternoon, given the very warm conditions and decent moisture levels aloft, an outflow boundary moving eastward into our viewing area from the storms firing off to our west could create a new complex of storms that, again, would be scattered across the viewing area later this afternoon and evening.

-Matt Madigan, KSAN Chief Meteorologist
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