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KSAN Tuesday, August 6th Daily Forecast Update

Potentially dangerous heat Wednesday and Thursday...
Update (8:45pm, Tuesday): Given the impressive shower and thunderstorm activity this evening over western Tom Green County and a few other isolated spots over the western half of the viewing area, I am, for the time being, adding a 20% chance for isolated showers and storms early tonight before subsiding completely by midnight, probably earlier. Skies are still expected to clear through the overnight as well. Given today's events, I'm going to reanalyze our rainfall chances in the days ahead, and additional changes will be applied as necessary. Hooray for the rain!!


Tonight: Mainly clear skies, typical summertime warmth, Low: 76

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a few more clouds during the PM hours; there will be a 10% chance for isolated showers and storms over our western counties during the PM hours as well, High: 105, approaching San Angelo's old record high of 107 set in 1924

Wednesday Night: Clearing skies with a 10% chance of a stray shower or storm, mainly over our western counties, Low: 76

Thursday: Mostly to partly sunny with a 10% chance for isolated showers and storms, mainly over our western counties, High: 103

Friday: Sunshine early with clouds increasing later in the day, especially over the northern half of the viewing area; there will be a 20% chance for PM showers and storms with the best chance for storms over the northern counties, High: 100

Saturday: Partly cloudy with some areas turning mostly sunny, High: 96

Sunday: Sunny skies early with some areas turning partly sunny later in the day, High: 97

Monday: Lots of sunshine, High: 96

Tuesday: Plentiful sunshine, seasonable warmth, High: 97

-Matt Madigan, KSAN Chief Meteorologist

Discussion:
WHILE TOMORROW'S HEAT IS STILL ON PACE TO PRODUCE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WORK WEEK, THE NEWER DATA IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ENCOURAGING WHEN IT COMES TO RAIN. WE'LL GET TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES IN A BIT, BUT STARTING WITH TONIGHT, THE FEW CLOUDS THAT MANAGED TO FORM LATE TODAY WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WARMTH OVERNIGHT WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS LOWS DROP TO ABOUT 76 DEGREES. SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80'S WHICH WOULD BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. TOMORROW WILL START SUNNY, BUT THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEAT AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PM HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY'S MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAT AS THE FORECAST HIGH SITS AT 105 DEGREES. THIS IS VERY NEAR SAN ANGELO'S OLD RECORD HIGH OF 107 SET IN 1924. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THAT 10% CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST OF THE AREA WILL TRANSITION FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S WITH A FORECAST LOW OF 76 DEGREES. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE PM HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A 10% CHANCE IN PLACE. THURSDAY'S FORECAST HIGH IS 103 DEGREES! ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO TREND DOWN, BUT THERE'S NO GUARANTEE. THE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR VIEWING AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE PM HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT IT'S CONTINGENT ON THAT COLD FRONT MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THE INSTABILITY TO BE SPARKED INTO STORMS. FRIDAY'S FORECAST HIGH IS 100, BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, THEN HIGHS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 103 OR 104 IN THE WARMEST AREAS. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IF THE COLD FRONT SPEEDS UP AND MAKES IT SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH, HIGHS WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME NEWER DATA AND HOPE FOR MORE AGREEMENT TO FLESH OUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. SATURDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGH IS 96. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, BUT SOME AREAS COULD STILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE PM HOURS. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 97. THERE IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH SEASONABLE HEAT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. MONDAY'S FORECAST HIGH IS 96 FOLLOWED BY A FORECAST HIGH OF 97 ON TUESDAY.
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